Fastest-growing U.S. county economies, 2016–2024
Ranked by real GDP compound annual growth (chained dollars — production growth net of price change). Counties must clear a $5 billion nominal-GDP floor in both 2016 and 2024 to reduce small-base distortion; real GDP must be positive and present at all four measured years.
Top 25 by real GDP CAGR, 2016–2024
Each row plots three measurement windows. Filled dot = 2016–2024 (primary). Circle = 2019–2024. Diamond = 2020–2024 (pandemic rebound). Hover or tap a row for detail.
The ranking
Real (chained-dollar) GDP measures production net of price change. Nominal GDP is shown only as an economy-size field and never enters the ranking. Rank spread is the gap between a county's best and worst rank across the three windows — 0 means it ranks the same no matter which years you measure; a large spread means its position depends on the window (often a pandemic-rebound artifact), so read its rank with more caution.
| Rank | County | Real CAGR 2016–2024 | Real CAGR 2019–2024 | Real CAGR 2020–2024 | Rank spread | GDP 2024 (nominal, size) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Midland, TX US-48329 | 10.63% | 6.34% (#15) | 10.07% (#3) | 14 | $41.5B |
| 2 | Guadalupe, TX US-48187 | 9.21% | 10.76% (#2) | 12.63% (#2) | 0 | $14.5B |
| 3 | San Mateo, CA US-06081 | 7.87% | 6.42% (#13) | 7.02% (#21) | 18 | $217.0B |
| 4 | Hays, TX US-48209 | 7.34% | 6.82% (#9) | 8.48% (#7) | 5 | $15.3B |
| 5 | Williamson, TX US-48491 | 7.13% | 7.68% (#3) | 7.88% (#11) | 8 | $44.6B |
| 6 | St. Johns, FL US-12109 | 7.07% | 7.52% (#5) | 7.73% (#12) | 7 | $18.6B |
| 7 | Gallatin, MT US-30031 | 7.05% | 7.32% (#6) | 8.57% (#6) | 1 | $11.9B |
| 8 | Rensselaer, NY US-36083 | 6.90% | 7.18% (#7) | 6.86% (#27) | 20 | $15.5B |
| 9 | Canyon, ID US-16027 | 6.63% | 6.22% (#19) | 7.15% (#17) | 10 | $11.7B |
| 10 | Utah, UT US-49049 | 6.55% | 5.63% (#27) | 5.82% (#58) | 48 | $47.9B |
| 11 | Denton, TX US-48121 | 6.42% | 6.70% (#11) | 5.76% (#63) | 52 | $64.3B |
| 12 | Montgomery, TX US-48339 | 6.22% | 4.86% (#49) | 5.72% (#65) | 53 | $50.1B |
| 13 | King, WA US-53033 | 6.14% | 4.97% (#44) | 5.78% (#62) | 49 | $477.2B |
| 14 | Comal, TX US-48091 | 6.10% | 6.80% (#10) | 6.78% (#30) | 20 | $12.1B |
| 15 | Dallas, IA US-19049 | 5.96% | 7.55% (#4) | 7.03% (#20) | 16 | $11.1B |
| 16 | Washington, UT US-49053 | 5.95% | 5.13% (#39) | 5.10% (#92) | 76 | $11.6B |
| 17 | Collin, TX US-48085 | 5.95% | 6.68% (#12) | 7.50% (#15) | 5 | $115.4B |
| 18 | Osceola, FL US-12097 | 5.92% | 5.89% (#24) | 8.32% (#8) | 16 | $20.4B |
| 19 | Pinal, AZ US-04021 | 5.90% | 7.01% (#8) | 7.69% (#13) | 11 | $16.3B |
| 20 | Travis, TX US-48453 | 5.83% | 6.12% (#21) | 6.99% (#22) | 2 | $202.7B |
| 21 | Berkeley, SC US-45015 | 5.61% | 6.36% (#14) | 7.89% (#10) | 11 | $14.3B |
| 22 | Benton, AR US-05007 | 5.59% | 6.24% (#18) | 6.45% (#39) | 21 | $26.1B |
| 23 | Brevard, FL US-12009 | 5.41% | 5.75% (#25) | 6.94% (#24) | 2 | $43.5B |
| 24 | Pasco, FL US-12101 | 5.37% | 6.30% (#16) | 7.52% (#14) | 10 | $24.2B |
| 25 | Fort Bend, TX US-48157 | 5.37% | 4.49% (#67) | 5.88% (#55) | 42 | $49.6B |
How this was computed
- Fix one eligibility universe for every window: real GDP (BEA CAGDP1, chained dollars) positive and present at 2016, 2019, 2020, and 2024; nominal GDP (BEA CAGDP2, current dollars) at least $5.0B in both 2016 and 2024. The nominal floor never applies to a chained-dollar value.
- Compute real CAGR = (real GDPlatest ÷ real GDPbase)^(1 ÷ years) − 1 for three windows: 2016–2024 (primary, 8 years), 2019–2024 (5 years), and 2020–2024 (4 years).
- Rank each window independently over the same eligible universe; full floating-point precision drives ordering, not the rounded display value. Rank spread is the difference between a county's highest and lowest rank across the three windows — a transparent robustness diagnostic, not a weighted score.
- Sort by the primary (2016–2024) rank, break exact ties by larger 2024 nominal GDP then ascending FIPS, and publish the first 25.
Coverage and limitations
536 of 3127 source counties met the fixed real-GDP + nominal-floor universe; 2591 were excluded — 2,568 by the $5.0B size floor, 23 because BEA publishes no usable real-GDP value for one of the four measured years, and 0 missing a nominal endpoint.
Nearly all exclusions are the size floor, by design, and county GDP is highly concentrated: the 536 eligible counties account for 84.1% of total 2024 nominal GDP across all 3,127 source counties. Without a floor, a compound-growth ranking is dominated by tiny economies where one plant opening or oil lease doubles the base — the floor trades a small slice of activity for a ranking whose movements reflect real economic change.
The 2020–2024 window starts in the pandemic year, so it can show large rebound effects unrelated to a county's longer-run trajectory — that is why it is shown as a secondary robustness field, not the primary ranking. BEA revises historical GDP values in later releases, so exact figures and ranks can shift on the next data vintage.
Real GDP is inflation-adjusted, chained-dollar output produced within a county. It does not measure resident income, population growth, affordability, or household prosperity.
Related: The Most Oil-Dependent Counties in America — a different lens on county economies: ranked by concentration (share of GDP in one industry) rather than growth rate. The two top-25 lists don't overlap — growth here is led by large, diversifying metros, not the small, single-industry counties that top the oil-dependence ranking.